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STORY
The Economic Impact of Hurricane Katrina
Introduction
The devastation
wreaked by Hurricane Katrina is staggering.
With insured
losses in the $20 to $25 billion range and total losses estimated as
high as $40 billion, Katrina has proved to be the costliest natural
disaster in the history of the United States, both in terms of human
suffering and financial losses.
Many have
predicted that Katrina will deal the U.S. economy a staggering blow at a
time when it can least afford it. However, TEC speaker and economist
Brian Beaulieu
believes otherwise.
In the following
interview, Beaulieu outlines his thoughts on the real economic impact of
the terrible storm.
A shot in the
arm
MyTEC:
How will Katrina affect the U.S. economy in the near and long-term?
Beaulieu:
For the short term, we can expect some weakness in certain sectors of
the economy. But as have seen with 9/11, previous hurricanes and
tsunamis in Southeast Asia, while the immediate economic impact is
negative, the long-term effect will be positive.
MyTEC:
How so?
Beaulieu:
Once the rebuilding gets underway, billions of dollars in fresh money
will flow into the Gulf area. Any time you pump that much money into an
economy, it has a positive effect. Obviously, some prices -- such as
lumber, gas and building materials -- will go higher because of demand.
But contractors, especially those in the southeast, will have as much
work as they can handle. Katrina eliminated any possibility of a housing
slowdown, and non-residential construction will also be strong because
businesses have to rebuild. In terms of the overall business cycle, we
think Katrina will give the economy a real shot in the arm at just the
right time.
MyTEC:
Which phase of the business cycle are we in now?
Beaulieu:
Leading
indicators were telling us the economy was headed for a slowdown in the
first two quarters of 2006. However, most of the rebuilding money will
start flowing into the Gulf area right at that slowdown point. So we’re
probably looking at a slowdown for the next quarter or two, but we’re
still predicting a very strong economy through the end of 2007, as we
forecasted earlier.
Increased
consumer spending
MyTEC:
How can something of this nature not have more of an impact on
the economy?
Beaulieu:
Because
the U.S. economy is so much bigger than the devastated area. We have an
$11 trillion a year economy. Even if the uninsured damages exceed $10
billion, which they may well do, it still represents a very small part
of the economy. Plus, the people who receive compensation from the
government will use the money to buy essential goods and services. And
as we know, consumer spending is very good for the economy.
MyTEC:
Where will all the rebuilding money come from?
Beaulieu:
The
government will probably have to dip into the budget deficit in order to
finance this. Bush couldn’t possibly eliminate the deficit before he
leaves office, but he was planning to reduce it by a significant amount.
Now, whatever the government spends on Katrina will mean he can reduce
the deficit by that much less. Down the road, that means interest rates
-- which are already rising -- will be that much higher. As a nation,
we’ll end up paying for Katrina through higher interest rates.
What about
the federal debt?
MyTEC:
In your TEC presentation, you mention the federal debt as one of your
primary concerns about the economy. Will this make it worse?
Beaulieu:
Long
term, the budget deficit still remains a problem, for reasons that have
nothing to do with Katrina. But for the intermediate term -- through
2006 -- we can absorb this and move on without much impact.
MyTEC:
What do you see happening to gasoline and fuel prices?
Beaulieu:
We’re
already beginning to see prices recede as supplies and production come
back online in the Gulf. Will prices at the pump come back down to
pre-Katrina levels? We can’t say because many factors affect retail gas
prices. But prices have come down in the futures market, which is one
example of how the business cycle trend has already started to resume
its normal course of events.
MyTEC:
So you’re not worried about the economy for the next year or so?
Beaulieu:
Not at
all. The media is hyping Katrina to an incredible extent because that’s
how you sell newspapers. But the reality for most businesses is that
they will pay higher prices in the short-term for things like trucking
and fuel, but this does not signal the end of their rising trend.
Companies might experience a slight dip in profits, or they might have
to come up with some productivity improvements to mitigate the higher
costs. But we expect the current rising trend to continue well through
2007.
Created for MyTEC.
Copyright 2005, TEC Worldwide, Inc.
All rights reserved.
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TEC NEWS
TEC Confidence Index: Confidence Index Slips Further – Was it Katrina?
Introduction
In the wake of
Hurricane Katrina’s wrath, TEC-member CEOs are most concerned about the
impact of rising oil costs on business and the economy, according to the
Q3 2005 TEC Confidence Index. The Index fell to a two-year low of 96.9
in the third quarter of 2005, down from 103.1 in the previous quarter,
and 109.8 at the beginning of the year.
The survey was
conducted Aug. 29 through Sept. 6, after Hurricane Katrina hit land, and
as the impact of the disaster was becoming apparent. Exactly 2,000
TEC-member CEOs responded. They see an ongoing slowdown of the economy,
with nearly a third expecting economic conditions to be worse in 12
months than they are now.
Even though
overall economic confidence is down, TEC members still expect to create
new jobs, raise prices, and see better revenues and profits. Ninety
percent say they will increase or maintain their current investment rate
in the next 12 months.
"The latest
survey indicates that U.S. firms have become increasingly convinced that
the pace of economic growth will slow during the year ahead," said
Richard Curtin, Ph.D., director of consumer surveys at the University of
Michigan, and consultant for the TEC Confidence Index. "Given that the
survey was conducted in the week following Hurricane Katrina, CEOs may
have become more uncertain about prospects for the overall economy while
remaining quite optimistic about the outlook for their own firms."
A Watchful
Eye on Oil Price Hikes
This quarter,
nearly half of all TEC-member CEOs said higher fuel prices concerned
them most about the economy, up from just 25 percent in the previous
quarter. Nearly a third of chief executives said that the cost of
gasoline is already significantly impacting how they conduct business,
while 12 percent said that their businesses would be significantly
impacted when gas costs hit $3 per gallon. Just over 20 percent believe
they will not be impacted by the rising cost of fuel.
Nearly 40
percent of members believe that the cost of a barrel of oil will stay
between $70 and $80, while 16 percent think it will stay between $80 and
$90, and 13 percent think it will fall or stay below $70.
Hiring
While nearly 80
percent of TEC members think that the economy will be about the same or
worse in the next 12 months, this concern does not seem to have an
impact on their plans to continue increasing their total number of
employees.
Sixty percent
said they plan to continue increasing their staff size over the next 12
months. This is up one percent from last quarter, when CEO confidence
was significantly higher. Only six percent of those surveyed plan to
decrease their total number of employees. Most firms say they will add
new employees steadily over the next 12 months.
Inflation is
in Check
More than 60
percent of TEC members surveyed think that the Federal Reserve is on the
right track to keep inflation in check, while only 20 percent disagree
with the Fed’s course of action.
More than half
plan to increase the price of their goods or services, up eight percent
from last quarter.
Investment –
Funding Sources, Planning and Budgets
Nearly half of
all members say they will increase their investment expenditures over
the next 12 months, and 60 percent of those surveyed say that their
number-one source of capital is reinvested profits, while just under 30
percent identify bank loans as their primary source of capital.
Three quarters
of those surveyed have a formalized budgeting and planning process in
place, while just 25 percent admit that they do not plan for the
company’s fiscal year. Sixty-eight percent of those who do have a
planning process begin it in the last quarter before the new year
begins.
Profits and
Revenues
TEC members
again expressed great expectations for increased revenues and profit. On
par with the last four quarters, more than three-quarters expect
increased sales revenues. This quarter, 63 percent of TEC members expect
their firms’ profitability to improve. This number is down just four
percent over last quarter, although the number of members who expect
profitability to remain the same increased by the same amount.
Down Time –
Vacations and Executive PTO
TEC members are
leaving time for a personal life, as 92 percent of those surveyed said
they took at least five vacation days in the last 12 months. More than a
third of those took more than 15 days off.
TEC Confidence Index Components
|
|
Q2 2004 |
Q3 2004 |
Q4 2004 |
Q1 2005 |
Q2 2005 |
Q3 2005 |
|
Current
Economic Conditions |
171
|
159
|
160
|
158
|
136
|
124
|
|
Expected
Economic Conditions |
150
|
147
|
151
|
144
|
126
|
91 |
|
Expected Change
in Employment |
154
|
153
|
159
|
158
|
153
|
154
|
|
Planned Fixed
Investment |
148
|
148
|
149
|
145
|
142
|
139
|
|
Expected
Revenue Growth |
178
|
179
|
179
|
179
|
173
|
172
|
|
Expected Profit
Growth |
163
|
165
|
165
|
161
|
158
|
154
|
Complete results for Q3 2005 TEC
Confidence Index
Created for MyTEC.
Copyright 2005, TEC Worldwide, Inc.
All rights reserved.
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TEC NEWS
Bloomberg Covers TEC Index: "CEO Confidence Falls to 2-Year Low After
Katrina, Survey Finds"
Editor’s
note: The following article about the Q3 TEC Confidence Index was
published by Bloomberg on Sept. 13, 2005.
Introduction
By Steve
Matthews
Sept. 13
(Bloomberg) -- Confidence among chief executive officers of small- and
medium-sized U.S. companies fell to the lowest in two years because of
concern over higher fuel prices after Hurricane Katrina, according to a
private survey. TEC International's TEC Confidence Index fell to 96.9
for the third quarter, the lowest since the survey was started in the
second quarter of 2003, from 103.1 in the prior quarter. The poll of
2,101 executives at companies with sales of $1 million to $1 billion was
conducted in the week after Katrina slammed into the Gulf coast on Aug.
29.
Fuel prices were
cited as the biggest concern among 46 percent of executives, twice the
proportion for any other issue in the poll by TEC, an
executive-development company. The average U.S. pump price for
regular-grade gasoline on Sept. 2 reached a record $3.057, according to
AAA, the largest motorists' organization.
"U.S. firms have
become increasingly convinced that the pace of economic growth will slow
during the year ahead," said Richard Curtin, director of consumer
surveys at the University of Michigan and consultant for the index.
After Katrina, "CEOs may have become more uncertain about prospects for
the overall economy while remaining quite optimistic about the outlook
for their own firms."
The survey
echoes a poll taken before Katrina by CFO Magazine and Duke University
in Durham, North Carolina. High oil prices are making some companies the
most pessimistic they've been in at least four years, according to the
survey of 374 U.S. executives.
Oil Prices
Thirty-one
percent of the executives in TEC International's survey forecast overall
U.S. economic conditions would be worse in the next 12 months, while 22
percent predicted the economy would improve and 47 percent expected it
to be about the same.
Most executives
expect oil prices to rise even more this year. About 38 percent expect
crude oil at between $70 and $80, 16 percent forecast $81 to $90, and 6
percent predicted $91 to $100. Just 13 percent predicted prices will
stay below $70.
Crude oil for
October delivery fell 68 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $63.40 a barrel at
the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange
yesterday. Crude oil touched a record $70.85 a barrel on Aug. 30.
The concern over
oil prices compares with prior surveys when energy costs were one of
several issues that weighed on executives. In the 2005 second-quarter
survey, 26 percent cited oil prices as the biggest concern, while 25
percent chose rising interest rates and 23 percent picked the budget
deficit.
Higher Sales,
Hiring
Even so, 77
percent of the executives in the latest survey said they expect sales at
their companies to improve, 63 percent expected higher profits and 60
percent said they plan to hire in the next year. Only 6 percent plan to
cut the number of employees. Planned hiring was unchanged from the prior
quarter.
"We just hired
15 people at a job fair," said David Sparks, 61, chief executive of
Professional Compounding Centers of America Inc., a Houston-based
supplier to pharmacies. "We don't think we'll hire a whole lot in the
next year, but we will hire some."
The company,
which has 225 U.S. employees, has been able to pass on higher shipping
costs to pharmacies, Sparks said. Sales are likely to continue to grow
10 percent to 13 percent a year because demand for medical supplies
won't be affected by an economic slowdown, he said.
Most executives
also backed Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan's policy of
raising interest rates at a "measured" pace. Fifty-nine percent agreed
with the policy as a way of keeping inflation in check, and 5 percent
agreed strongly. Just 3 percent strongly disagreed.
More than half of the executives said they plan to raise the price of
products or services in the next year, compared with 40 percent who said
prices would be about the same, and 6 percent who plan to reduce prices.
The survey had a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Created for MyTEC. Copyright 2005, TEC Worldwide, Inc. All
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EXPERT INSIGHT
Taming the Tyranny of the Inbox
Diminishing
Productivity
This just in:
E-mail, text messages and voice mail are making workers dumber.
No joke. There’s
clinical evidence.
A U.K. psychiatrist
conducted 80 clinical trials, monitoring the IQ of workers throughout the
day.
What he found is
shocking: His subjects’ IQ dropped 10 points when they tried to juggle
messages and work.
That’s the same
effect as losing a whole night’s sleep.
The study, conducted
by Glenn Wilson, Ph.D., at King’s College London University, was the latest
in a series that shows how difficult it can be for workers to "turn off"
electronic messages that distract and derail them.
Another survey,
conducted online, showed this to be a worldwide problem. It captured the
opinions of 38,000 people from 200 countries. The conclusion: Lack of
productivity is at epidemic proportions.
Workers in the
Microsoft Office Personal Productivity Challenge said they only have three
productive days in a 45-hour week. U.S. workers cited procrastination as the
biggest issue.
What’s a beleaguered
leader to do?
Signs of Workflow
Pain
TEC speaker
Guido Groeschel is no
stranger to workflow pain. The founding partner of Sherpa Performance
Guides witnesses it every day, and helps executives and their support
staff climb their way out of it.
Among the tell-tale signs of what Sherpa calls
workflow pain:
-
Feeling stressed
and overwhelmed
-
Working hard but
feeling like you’re falling short
-
Unclear progress on
initiatives and projects
-
Action items
falling through the cracks
-
Action items not
delegated (for fear of losing visibility)
-
Using your email
inbox as a ‘To Do’ list
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Offices cluttered
with papers
-
Post-It Note abuse
Any of this sound familiar? Too close for
comfort?
Here, Groeschel details the steps to take if
we hope to survive an avalanche of 23,000 e-mails (the average a knowledge
worker fields every year)—among other electronic intrusions.
Remember: Buried in that disaster is vital
material: Half the critical information that worker needs to do the job is
housed within his or her e-mail system.
What’s a Harried Executive to Do?
"Take lessons from the world of high-altitude
mountaineering where one must consistently demonstrate maximum performance
in the most extreme conditions, where the risk is high and margin of error
low," says Groeschel.
"At Sherpa we actively integrate climbing
lessons and practices into our careful hands-on approach to executive
performance."
Fundamental to the Sherpa approach is helping
clients build a workflow system to turn workflow pain into workflow
mastery.
Groeschel guides executives to put in practice
a methodology so they can make decisions more effectively and efficiently
in two key areas:
1.
Clearing Your Inboxes: Dig out of the avalanche of
information that fills your inboxes.
2.
Performing in the Storm: Answer the knowledge worker
question: What should I do now?
Clear Your Inboxes
The first step as you start the ascent to
workflow mastery involves clearing your inboxes, which come in many forms:
e-mail, voice mail and physical (the one that holds memos, snail mail,
etc.).
Clearing them opens your work world to great
possibilities of completed work. Groeschel recommends starting with the
"inbox between your ears."
-
Externalize: Clear
your "mental" inbox. What "to do’s" are you carrying around
in your head? Commit them to writing by putting them on either your
"task" or "project" list. Uncluttered minds can focus better.
-
Create a "front-end
filter" that reduces the constant flow.
This requires
establishing a protective mindset. Do you really want to accept every
piece of information that comes your way? Beware what you let into your
world, because each item you let in takes time and energy to manage.
Learn to love your "delete" key. Make sure your junk mail filter is
working well.
-
Transform inbox
items into "stakes in the snow." As mountain climbers,
Sherpa’s principals often equate workplace challenges to those you might
find on high-adventure trips. "Stakes in the snow" are actionable
items—the tasks and projects that you will want to come back to as you
find your way through the workweek.
Refuse to use your e-mail
inbox as a "To Do" list. Set aside time to make decisions on all those
extraneous emails, to schedule tasks and calendar items. Create folders in
Microsoft Outlook that allow you to assign emails appropriately. Use the
"task" and "project" functions.
Ultimately, your goal is to reduce the visual
volume that you face so that you can make better decisions about what to
do. Groeschel calls this principle "visual volume reduction" and has found
that it is key for executives to get where they want, when they want, and
how they want.
Perform in the Storm
"A typical knowledge worker has to deal with
plenty of unplanned work. After getting through a storm, he or she has to
tackle the planned work, which is on a task list or calendar," observes
Groeschel. "The key question becomes, ‘What should I do now?’"
It’s a struggle to stay focused.
-
Avoid the "tyranny
of the inbox." Don’t be lured into the e-mail lair, where
what you choose to do next is influenced by the last few people who have
e-mailed you, instead of your own goals and priorities. This will
inevitably cause you to get off track and become even more unfocused.
-
Turn to your
calendar and task list as "home base."
Use this as your
North Star for staying on track. Actively Prioritize your activities
this way.
-
Calendar a time to
return to your email inbox. Confine your e-mail reading,
responding and further task scheduling to this time.
Conduct a ‘Beta Session’
"Knowledge workers are, by nature, ambitious.
They thrive on over-committing," says Groeschel. "But you can’t move ahead
with 72 projects at once."
A one-hour "beta session" each week helps
balance the load.
In the mountaineering world a beta session is
a tool that expeditions use to stay on track and reach the peak. "We’ve
taken this idea and applied it to executives. The intent is to step back
from the minute-to-minute, day-to-day work fray and look at the bigger
picture," says Groeschel.
-
Check your project
list. Make sure you’re moving your important projects ahead.
Defer projects that you don’t plan to take any action on in the next
seven to 10 days.
-
Check your task
list. Are you taking on too much? Balance your load by
deferring tasks that you don’t need to take action on in the next seven
to 10 days.
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Make intentions.
Move important tasks to open slots in your calendar to get
them done. Research has shown that people are over two times more likely
to take action when they designate a time and place to do it.
"By making intentions and balancing your load
of project, task, and calendar stakes, you can reach the peak," promises
Groeschel.
Just as important, you
are less likely to lose your grip and fall down the workload mountain,
buried under the avalanche of e-mails, meetings, and other commitments.
Created for MyTEC.
Copyright 2005, TEC Worldwide, Inc.
All rights reserved.
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