Home

 Vistage Services

Why Join Vistage?

Vistage Works!

Vistage eNotes

Group News

CEO Group

Key Group

Comments

About Me

Contact Me

 
Vistage International

 

"A prudent person profits from personal experience, a wise one from the experience of others." 
- - Dr. Joseph Colins

Return to eNotes Newsletter

TEC Leadership Notes
October 2005   Volume 2   Number 10
 

This page contains all the articles summarized in the October 2005 TEC Leadership eNotes monthly newsletter.  Click after the title of the desired article in the list below to move down the page to the start of the article.  These articles are extracted from the regular TEC Express Newsletters that is sent to TEC members each month.


bullet

Top Story:  What will be the long-term economic impact of Katrina? - click here

bullet

TEC News: Confidence Index slips further – was it Katrina? - click here

bullet

TEC News: Bloomberg covers the TEC Confidence Index - click here

bullet

Expert Insight: Taming the tyranny of the inbox - click here

bullet

Events TEC Events and My TEC Groups - click here


TOP STORY

The Economic Impact of Hurricane Katrina

Introduction

The devastation wreaked by Hurricane Katrina is staggering.

With insured losses in the $20 to $25 billion range and total losses estimated as high as $40 billion, Katrina has proved to be the costliest natural disaster in the history of the United States, both in terms of human suffering and financial losses.

Many have predicted that Katrina will deal the U.S. economy a staggering blow at a time when it can least afford it. However, TEC speaker and economist Brian Beaulieu believes otherwise.

In the following interview, Beaulieu outlines his thoughts on the real economic impact of the terrible storm.

A shot in the arm

MyTEC: How will Katrina affect the U.S. economy in the near and long-term?

Beaulieu: For the short term, we can expect some weakness in certain sectors of the economy. But as have seen with 9/11, previous hurricanes and tsunamis in Southeast Asia, while the immediate economic impact is negative, the long-term effect will be positive.

MyTEC: How so?

Beaulieu: Once the rebuilding gets underway, billions of dollars in fresh money will flow into the Gulf area. Any time you pump that much money into an economy, it has a positive effect. Obviously, some prices -- such as lumber, gas and building materials -- will go higher because of demand. But contractors, especially those in the southeast, will have as much work as they can handle. Katrina eliminated any possibility of a housing slowdown, and non-residential construction will also be strong because businesses have to rebuild. In terms of the overall business cycle, we think Katrina will give the economy a real shot in the arm at just the right time.

MyTEC: Which phase of the business cycle are we in now?

Beaulieu: Leading indicators were telling us the economy was headed for a slowdown in the first two quarters of 2006. However, most of the rebuilding money will start flowing into the Gulf area right at that slowdown point. So we’re probably looking at a slowdown for the next quarter or two, but we’re still predicting a very strong economy through the end of 2007, as we forecasted earlier.

Increased consumer spending

MyTEC: How can something of this nature not have more of an impact on the economy?

Beaulieu: Because the U.S. economy is so much bigger than the devastated area. We have an $11 trillion a year economy. Even if the uninsured damages exceed $10 billion, which they may well do, it still represents a very small part of the economy. Plus, the people who receive compensation from the government will use the money to buy essential goods and services. And as we know, consumer spending is very good for the economy.

MyTEC: Where will all the rebuilding money come from?

Beaulieu: The government will probably have to dip into the budget deficit in order to finance this. Bush couldn’t possibly eliminate the deficit before he leaves office, but he was planning to reduce it by a significant amount. Now, whatever the government spends on Katrina will mean he can reduce the deficit by that much less. Down the road, that means interest rates -- which are already rising -- will be that much higher. As a nation, we’ll end up paying for Katrina through higher interest rates.

What about the federal debt?

MyTEC: In your TEC presentation, you mention the federal debt as one of your primary concerns about the economy. Will this make it worse?

Beaulieu: Long term, the budget deficit still remains a problem, for reasons that have nothing to do with Katrina. But for the intermediate term -- through 2006 -- we can absorb this and move on without much impact.

MyTEC: What do you see happening to gasoline and fuel prices?

Beaulieu: We’re already beginning to see prices recede as supplies and production come back online in the Gulf. Will prices at the pump come back down to pre-Katrina levels? We can’t say because many factors affect retail gas prices. But prices have come down in the futures market, which is one example of how the business cycle trend has already started to resume its normal course of events.

MyTEC: So you’re not worried about the economy for the next year or so?

Beaulieu: Not at all. The media is hyping Katrina to an incredible extent because that’s how you sell newspapers. But the reality for most businesses is that they will pay higher prices in the short-term for things like trucking and fuel, but this does not signal the end of their rising trend. Companies might experience a slight dip in profits, or they might have to come up with some productivity improvements to mitigate the higher costs. But we expect the current rising trend to continue well through 2007.


Created for MyTEC. Copyright 2005, TEC Worldwide, Inc. All rights reserved.

Return to Top


TEC NEWS

TEC Confidence Index: Confidence Index Slips Further – Was it Katrina?

Introduction

In the wake of Hurricane Katrina’s wrath, TEC-member CEOs are most concerned about the impact of rising oil costs on business and the economy, according to the Q3 2005 TEC Confidence Index. The Index fell to a two-year low of 96.9 in the third quarter of 2005, down from 103.1 in the previous quarter, and 109.8 at the beginning of the year.

The survey was conducted Aug. 29 through Sept. 6, after Hurricane Katrina hit land, and as the impact of the disaster was becoming apparent. Exactly 2,000 TEC-member CEOs responded. They see an ongoing slowdown of the economy, with nearly a third expecting economic conditions to be worse in 12 months than they are now.

Even though overall economic confidence is down, TEC members still expect to create new jobs, raise prices, and see better revenues and profits. Ninety percent say they will increase or maintain their current investment rate in the next 12 months.

"The latest survey indicates that U.S. firms have become increasingly convinced that the pace of economic growth will slow during the year ahead," said Richard Curtin, Ph.D., director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan, and consultant for the TEC Confidence Index. "Given that the survey was conducted in the week following Hurricane Katrina, CEOs may have become more uncertain about prospects for the overall economy while remaining quite optimistic about the outlook for their own firms."

A Watchful Eye on Oil Price Hikes

This quarter, nearly half of all TEC-member CEOs said higher fuel prices concerned them most about the economy, up from just 25 percent in the previous quarter. Nearly a third of chief executives said that the cost of gasoline is already significantly impacting how they conduct business, while 12 percent said that their businesses would be significantly impacted when gas costs hit $3 per gallon. Just over 20 percent believe they will not be impacted by the rising cost of fuel.

Nearly 40 percent of members believe that the cost of a barrel of oil will stay between $70 and $80, while 16 percent think it will stay between $80 and $90, and 13 percent think it will fall or stay below $70.

Hiring

While nearly 80 percent of TEC members think that the economy will be about the same or worse in the next 12 months, this concern does not seem to have an impact on their plans to continue increasing their total number of employees.

Sixty percent said they plan to continue increasing their staff size over the next 12 months. This is up one percent from last quarter, when CEO confidence was significantly higher. Only six percent of those surveyed plan to decrease their total number of employees. Most firms say they will add new employees steadily over the next 12 months.

Inflation is in Check

More than 60 percent of TEC members surveyed think that the Federal Reserve is on the right track to keep inflation in check, while only 20 percent disagree with the Fed’s course of action.

More than half plan to increase the price of their goods or services, up eight percent from last quarter.

Investment – Funding Sources, Planning and Budgets

Nearly half of all members say they will increase their investment expenditures over the next 12 months, and 60 percent of those surveyed say that their number-one source of capital is reinvested profits, while just under 30 percent identify bank loans as their primary source of capital.

Three quarters of those surveyed have a formalized budgeting and planning process in place, while just 25 percent admit that they do not plan for the company’s fiscal year. Sixty-eight percent of those who do have a planning process begin it in the last quarter before the new year begins.

Profits and Revenues

TEC members again expressed great expectations for increased revenues and profit. On par with the last four quarters, more than three-quarters expect increased sales revenues. This quarter, 63 percent of TEC members expect their firms’ profitability to improve. This number is down just four percent over last quarter, although the number of members who expect profitability to remain the same increased by the same amount.

Down Time – Vacations and Executive PTO

TEC members are leaving time for a personal life, as 92 percent of those surveyed said they took at least five vacation days in the last 12 months. More than a third of those took more than 15 days off.


TEC Confidence Index Components

 



Q2 2004



Q3 2004



Q4 2004



Q1 2005



Q2 2005



Q3 2005

Current Economic Conditions

171

159

160

158

136

124

Expected Economic Conditions

150

147

151

144

126

91

Expected Change in Employment

154

153

159

158

153

154

Planned Fixed Investment

148

148

149

145

142

139

Expected Revenue Growth

178

179

179

179

173

172

Expected Profit Growth

163

165

165

161

158

154

Complete results for Q3 2005 TEC Confidence Index


Created for MyTEC. Copyright 2005, TEC Worldwide, Inc. All rights reserved.

Return to Top


TEC NEWS

Bloomberg Covers TEC Index: "CEO Confidence Falls to 2-Year Low After Katrina, Survey Finds"

Editor’s note: The following article about the Q3 TEC Confidence Index was published by Bloomberg on Sept. 13, 2005.

Introduction

By Steve Matthews

Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among chief executive officers of small- and medium-sized U.S. companies fell to the lowest in two years because of concern over higher fuel prices after Hurricane Katrina, according to a private survey. TEC International's TEC Confidence Index fell to 96.9 for the third quarter, the lowest since the survey was started in the second quarter of 2003, from 103.1 in the prior quarter. The poll of 2,101 executives at companies with sales of $1 million to $1 billion was conducted in the week after Katrina slammed into the Gulf coast on Aug. 29.

Fuel prices were cited as the biggest concern among 46 percent of executives, twice the proportion for any other issue in the poll by TEC, an executive-development company. The average U.S. pump price for regular-grade gasoline on Sept. 2 reached a record $3.057, according to AAA, the largest motorists' organization.

"U.S. firms have become increasingly convinced that the pace of economic growth will slow during the year ahead," said Richard Curtin, director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan and consultant for the index. After Katrina, "CEOs may have become more uncertain about prospects for the overall economy while remaining quite optimistic about the outlook for their own firms."

The survey echoes a poll taken before Katrina by CFO Magazine and Duke University in Durham, North Carolina. High oil prices are making some companies the most pessimistic they've been in at least four years, according to the survey of 374 U.S. executives.

Oil Prices

Thirty-one percent of the executives in TEC International's survey forecast overall U.S. economic conditions would be worse in the next 12 months, while 22 percent predicted the economy would improve and 47 percent expected it to be about the same.

Most executives expect oil prices to rise even more this year. About 38 percent expect crude oil at between $70 and $80, 16 percent forecast $81 to $90, and 6 percent predicted $91 to $100. Just 13 percent predicted prices will stay below $70.

Crude oil for October delivery fell 68 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $63.40 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday. Crude oil touched a record $70.85 a barrel on Aug. 30.

The concern over oil prices compares with prior surveys when energy costs were one of several issues that weighed on executives. In the 2005 second-quarter survey, 26 percent cited oil prices as the biggest concern, while 25 percent chose rising interest rates and 23 percent picked the budget deficit.

Higher Sales, Hiring

Even so, 77 percent of the executives in the latest survey said they expect sales at their companies to improve, 63 percent expected higher profits and 60 percent said they plan to hire in the next year. Only 6 percent plan to cut the number of employees. Planned hiring was unchanged from the prior quarter.

"We just hired 15 people at a job fair," said David Sparks, 61, chief executive of Professional Compounding Centers of America Inc., a Houston-based supplier to pharmacies. "We don't think we'll hire a whole lot in the next year, but we will hire some."

The company, which has 225 U.S. employees, has been able to pass on higher shipping costs to pharmacies, Sparks said. Sales are likely to continue to grow 10 percent to 13 percent a year because demand for medical supplies won't be affected by an economic slowdown, he said.

Most executives also backed Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan's policy of raising interest rates at a "measured" pace. Fifty-nine percent agreed with the policy as a way of keeping inflation in check, and 5 percent agreed strongly. Just 3 percent strongly disagreed.

More than half of the executives said they plan to raise the price of products or services in the next year, compared with 40 percent who said prices would be about the same, and 6 percent who plan to reduce prices. The survey had a margin of error of 2 percentage points.


Created for MyTEC. Copyright 2005, TEC Worldwide, Inc. All rights reserved.

 Return to Top


EXPERT INSIGHT

Taming the Tyranny of the Inbox

Diminishing Productivity

This just in: E-mail, text messages and voice mail are making workers dumber.

No joke. There’s clinical evidence.

A U.K. psychiatrist conducted 80 clinical trials, monitoring the IQ of workers throughout the day.

What he found is shocking: His subjects’ IQ dropped 10 points when they tried to juggle messages and work.

That’s the same effect as losing a whole night’s sleep.

The study, conducted by Glenn Wilson, Ph.D., at King’s College London University, was the latest in a series that shows how difficult it can be for workers to "turn off" electronic messages that distract and derail them.

Another survey, conducted online, showed this to be a worldwide problem. It captured the opinions of 38,000 people from 200 countries. The conclusion: Lack of productivity is at epidemic proportions.

Workers in the Microsoft Office Personal Productivity Challenge said they only have three productive days in a 45-hour week. U.S. workers cited procrastination as the biggest issue.

What’s a beleaguered leader to do?

Signs of Workflow Pain

TEC speaker Guido Groeschel is no stranger to workflow pain. The founding partner of Sherpa Performance Guides witnesses it every day, and helps executives and their support staff climb their way out of it.

Among the tell-tale signs of what Sherpa calls workflow pain:

  • Feeling stressed and overwhelmed

  • Working hard but feeling like you’re falling short

  • Unclear progress on initiatives and projects

  • Action items falling through the cracks

  • Action items not delegated (for fear of losing visibility)

  • Using your email inbox as a ‘To Do’ list

  • Offices cluttered with papers

  • Post-It Note abuse

Any of this sound familiar? Too close for comfort?

Here, Groeschel details the steps to take if we hope to survive an avalanche of 23,000 e-mails (the average a knowledge worker fields every year)—among other electronic intrusions.

Remember: Buried in that disaster is vital material: Half the critical information that worker needs to do the job is housed within his or her e-mail system.

What’s a Harried Executive to Do?

"Take lessons from the world of high-altitude mountaineering where one must consistently demonstrate maximum performance in the most extreme conditions, where the risk is high and margin of error low," says Groeschel.

"At Sherpa we actively integrate climbing lessons and practices into our careful hands-on approach to executive performance."

Fundamental to the Sherpa approach is helping clients build a workflow system to turn workflow pain into workflow mastery.

Groeschel guides executives to put in practice a methodology so they can make decisions more effectively and efficiently in two key areas:

1.       Clearing Your Inboxes: Dig out of the avalanche of information that fills your inboxes.

2.       Performing in the Storm: Answer the knowledge worker question: What should I do now?

Clear Your Inboxes

The first step as you start the ascent to workflow mastery involves clearing your inboxes, which come in many forms: e-mail, voice mail and physical (the one that holds memos, snail mail, etc.).

Clearing them opens your work world to great possibilities of completed work. Groeschel recommends starting with the "inbox between your ears."

  • Externalize: Clear your "mental" inbox. What "to do’s" are you carrying around in your head? Commit them to writing by putting them on either your "task" or "project" list. Uncluttered minds can focus better.

  • Create a "front-end filter" that reduces the constant flow. This requires establishing a protective mindset. Do you really want to accept every piece of information that comes your way? Beware what you let into your world, because each item you let in takes time and energy to manage. Learn to love your "delete" key. Make sure your junk mail filter is working well.

  • Transform inbox items into "stakes in the snow." As mountain climbers, Sherpa’s principals often equate workplace challenges to those you might find on high-adventure trips. "Stakes in the snow" are actionable items—the tasks and projects that you will want to come back to as you find your way through the workweek.

Refuse to use your e-mail inbox as a "To Do" list. Set aside time to make decisions on all those extraneous emails, to schedule tasks and calendar items. Create folders in Microsoft Outlook that allow you to assign emails appropriately. Use the "task" and "project" functions.

Ultimately, your goal is to reduce the visual volume that you face so that you can make better decisions about what to do. Groeschel calls this principle "visual volume reduction" and has found that it is key for executives to get where they want, when they want, and how they want.

Perform in the Storm

"A typical knowledge worker has to deal with plenty of unplanned work. After getting through a storm, he or she has to tackle the planned work, which is on a task list or calendar," observes Groeschel. "The key question becomes, ‘What should I do now?’"

It’s a struggle to stay focused.

  • Avoid the "tyranny of the inbox." Don’t be lured into the e-mail lair, where what you choose to do next is influenced by the last few people who have e-mailed you, instead of your own goals and priorities. This will inevitably cause you to get off track and become even more unfocused.

  • Turn to your calendar and task list as "home base." Use this as your North Star for staying on track. Actively Prioritize your activities this way.

  • Calendar a time to return to your email inbox. Confine your e-mail reading, responding and further task scheduling to this time.

Conduct a ‘Beta Session’

"Knowledge workers are, by nature, ambitious. They thrive on over-committing," says Groeschel. "But you can’t move ahead with 72 projects at once."

A one-hour "beta session" each week helps balance the load.

In the mountaineering world a beta session is a tool that expeditions use to stay on track and reach the peak. "We’ve taken this idea and applied it to executives. The intent is to step back from the minute-to-minute, day-to-day work fray and look at the bigger picture," says Groeschel.

  • Check your project list. Make sure you’re moving your important projects ahead. Defer projects that you don’t plan to take any action on in the next seven to 10 days.

  • Check your task list. Are you taking on too much? Balance your load by deferring tasks that you don’t need to take action on in the next seven to 10 days.

  • Make intentions. Move important tasks to open slots in your calendar to get them done. Research has shown that people are over two times more likely to take action when they designate a time and place to do it.

"By making intentions and balancing your load of project, task, and calendar stakes, you can reach the peak," promises Groeschel.

Just as important, you are less likely to lose your grip and fall down the workload mountain, buried under the avalanche of e-mails, meetings, and other commitments.


Created for MyTEC. Copyright 2005, TEC Worldwide, Inc. All rights reserved.

 Return to Top


  |  Home | Vistage Services | Why Join Vistage? | Vistage Works! | Vistage eNotes | Group News |  
| CEO Group | Key Executive Group | About Me
| Contacts |
© 2009 Sam Pederson  All Rights Reserved